Die Rezession in den USA, die schwerste und längste seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg, neigt sich ihrem Ende zu. Die Maßnahmen der Notenbank und der Regierung helfen, die Wirtschaft wieder auf einen Erholungskurs zu bringen. Allerdings wird der Aufschwung verglichen mit vergangenen Zyklen schwächer ausfallen - die strukturellen Ungleichgewichte wirken weiter dämpfend.
In diesem Umfeld stellt Inflation auf absehbare Zeit keine Gefahr dar. Zunächst dürfte vielmehr die disinflationäre Tendenz anhalten. Die Fed wird auch aus diesem Grund wohl länger zögern, ihre extrem großzügige Liquiditätspolitik zu beenden. Das Risiko eines langfristigen Inflationsproblems nimmt damit tendenziell zu.
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In diesem Umfeld stellt Inflation auf absehbare Zeit keine Gefahr dar. Zunächst dürfte vielmehr die disinflationäre Tendenz anhalten. Die Fed wird auch aus diesem Grund wohl länger zögern, ihre extrem großzügige Liquiditätspolitik zu beenden. Das Risiko eines langfristigen Inflationsproblems nimmt damit tendenziell zu.
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