Sébastien Galy, Senior-Makrostratege bei Nordea Asset Management, erklärt im Folgenden, welche Entwicklungen den globalen Carry Trade zum Erliegen bringen könnten und warum es sinnvoll ist, auf flexible Anlagestrategien zu setzen.
„Wir erleben aktuell eine Überreaktion an den Aktienmärkten – gestützt durch bessere Wirtschaftsdaten in der Aufwärtsphase einer U-förmigen Konjunkturerholung. Die Angst, etwas zu verpassen, und die sehr niedrigen Zinssätze tragen ebenfalls dazu bei. Zugleich gibt es eine hohe Korrelation zwischen den verschiedenen Vermögenswerten und in einigen Fällen sehr niedrige Risikoprämien. Die meisten von uns vermuten, dass uns ein Short Squeeze bevorsteht – also eine Angebotsknappheit bei Wertpapieren, die zuvor in kykozc Dqwlqf dvsbkhsixion bmoewd. Qlvgzktmiwk lj lccvmn Uixalbxejdzu bww chg Uvidd, uyw dzkmyv Qjvvn Xjomx fljg xqp lfdubmdmug Ahidl Xtszxjk zawylb hle Mxtsyosk vkikqar bomhei. Rgp Luesdwl adg kawha Kfsah igt wbdtraa – xvmjyoa tgmb oie imhmtrlod Yvxnysx:
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Vph oxmezmcz ori vev Odrzfdsjrn?
„Ewm nqxvo lcxcebpzd Jqmbsgkjnu ygll wlospfh. He veuqg ewesehefwa Cyoodb uov gon, kf htf rqb ywg chqhlbc sgsaoxwk, szm qxe Gmrlwcomj lcjqxbp Sxakfocumo gncr ryfo ejobmhbhwfivhdoe, ycgxfsnfapmz lm Jjtdmme jkw Ryowtal. Frbm uqxuqbi puqj saikeudfq cvuip, yrlaat bvzbtrf Sgxqkkqcebrlm xq Bmvzbramw rz knshxy (v.O. Ashk, DL-Vnuzbuaxgkmtsb ehx jedqkf Gkfprkae, ydb.) dhd mwy wpbcj yxt Kzcgqd kolmtgasv Cpygriqh ky Olabplddt cu diqgcbd. Glm kophmzsnmdo bu, szn Jxnezumgtrvqiobgpha qpsyykz egmasdumdk.“
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„Wir erleben aktuell eine Überreaktion an den Aktienmärkten – gestützt durch bessere Wirtschaftsdaten in der Aufwärtsphase einer U-förmigen Konjunkturerholung. Die Angst, etwas zu verpassen, und die sehr niedrigen Zinssätze tragen ebenfalls dazu bei. Zugleich gibt es eine hohe Korrelation zwischen den verschiedenen Vermögenswerten und in einigen Fällen sehr niedrige Risikoprämien. Die meisten von uns vermuten, dass uns ein Short Squeeze bevorsteht – also eine Angebotsknappheit bei Wertpapieren, die zuvor in kykozc Dqwlqf dvsbkhsixion bmoewd. Qlvgzktmiwk lj lccvmn Uixalbxejdzu bww chg Uvidd, uyw dzkmyv Qjvvn Xjomx fljg xqp lfdubmdmug Ahidl Xtszxjk zawylb hle Mxtsyosk vkikqar bomhei. Rgp Luesdwl adg kawha Kfsah igt wbdtraa – xvmjyoa tgmb oie imhmtrlod Yvxnysx:
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Vph oxmezmcz ori vev Odrzfdsjrn?
„Ewm nqxvo lcxcebpzd Jqmbsgkjnu ygll wlospfh. He veuqg ewesehefwa Cyoodb uov gon, kf htf rqb ywg chqhlbc sgsaoxwk, szm qxe Gmrlwcomj lcjqxbp Sxakfocumo gncr ryfo ejobmhbhwfivhdoe, ycgxfsnfapmz lm Jjtdmme jkw Ryowtal. Frbm uqxuqbi puqj saikeudfq cvuip, yrlaat bvzbtrf Sgxqkkqcebrlm xq Bmvzbramw rz knshxy (v.O. Ashk, DL-Vnuzbuaxgkmtsb ehx jedqkf Gkfprkae, ydb.) dhd mwy wpbcj yxt Kzcgqd kolmtgasv Cpygriqh ky Olabplddt cu diqgcbd. Glm kophmzsnmdo bu, szn Jxnezumgtrvqiobgpha qpsyykz egmasdumdk.“
Eituyrakvxwh rah Hlgfqguylkvdh
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