Aufgrund des sich verschlechternden Konjunkturzyklus blinkten im 4. Quartal 2022 alle drei Ampeln, die das Credit-Team von Janus Henderson Investors überwacht, weiterhin rot. Die Inflationswildcard hat jedoch das Risiko verringert, dass die Geldpolitik eine harte Landung einleiten muss, um die Inflation einzudämmen.
Das Potenzial für eine weiche Landung ist also gestiegen. Die Credit-Fondsmanager von Janus Henderson bleiben jedoch vorsichtig, da die Wirtschaftsentwicklung ungewiss bleibt und der Inflationsrückgang zu spät kommt, um eine weitere Verschlechterung des Kreditzyklus zu verhindern.
Sich verschlechternde Fundamentaldaten werden laut Analyse für diese Phase des Kreditzyklus ausschlaggebend sein.
Ob die Unterschiede zwischen den Branchen und Sektoren zunehmen werden, hängt
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