Die pandemiebedingten Einschränkungen des öffentlichen Lebens in Deutschland haben auch im Winterhalbjahr 2020/21 die Konsummöglichkeiten der privaten Haushalte spürbar eingeschränkt. Große Teile des stationären Einzelhandels sowie Dienstleistungsbetriebe, die auf persönliche Interaktion angewiesen sind, mussten schließen. Der Tourismus und ein Großteil des Gastgewerbes liegen brach. Die Auflösung des damit verbundenen Konsumstaus wird entscheidend für die konjunkturelle Erholung sein.
Wenn die Pandemie eine Lockerung der Restriktionen ab Q2 zulässt, könnten in einem konservativen Szenario etwa 30% der zusätzlichen Ersparnisse (EUR 50 Mrd.) im Jahr 2021 wieder in den privaten Konsum fließen, während fast 70% in Einlagen oder Vermögenswerten der privaten Haushalte verbleiben aucwog.
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