Rückblickend war die Debatte über Basis- versus Risikoszenarien seit der Großen Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 sinnlos. Dominante Währungsbehörden führten zu einem risikofreudigen Basisszenario an den Finanzmärkten. Fast ununterbrochen umfangreiche Programme zum Ankauf von Vermögenswerten durch die Zentralbanken ließen die Wirkung der Wirtschafts- und Fiskalpolitik in den Hintergrund treten. In den vergangenen 13 Jahren kam es zu einer Vermögenspreisinflation, wie sie seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg nur selten beobachtet wurde. Meistens waren die makroökonomischen Risikoszenarien nur von kurzer Dauer oder wurden auf länderspezifische bzw. regionale Spannungen zurückgeführt. Nicht einmal die stärker synchronisierte Wachstumsverlangsamung in den Schwellenländern zwischen Mitte 2013 und 2016 konnte die
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