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Metzler: Steady upswing on the German stock market to remain intact in 2018
The average PE ratio of DAX stocks has reached an impressive level. In this environment of slightly rising interest rates, König sees only little upward leeway. Therefore, a further index hike will depend on further earnings improvements. Metzler analysts predict the DAX will reach a peak of 13,900 points in 2018 based on current consensus estimates for DAX corporate earnings and the historic PE valuation range.
The conditions for continued economic growth in Germany have certainly been met, assuming there are no major political upsets and that Germany can form a new government without new elections. Another coalition of the parties CDU/CSU and SPD would likely lead to rising investment in infrastructure. Topics like funding for families and equal pay for equal work would probably have high priority, too. Furthermore, with the departure of Wolfgang Schäuble as Finance Minister, the strict austerity policy would probably be loosened. Overall, this means that strong private consumer spending would continue - another important factor supporting further economic growth. Analysts see cause for concern in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Italy where anti-Europe parties are likely to make significance gains.
From a bottom-up perspective, the analysts at Metzler Capital Markets prefer stocks in companies that are likely to benefit from the following investment themes: an ongoing solid global economic upswing, possible growth initiatives of a new German government, structural sector growth trends like digitization, and a gradual normalization of monetary policies by relevant central banks. The Metzler analysts highlight interest-rate-sensitive stocks, e.g. insurance and bank stocks, and undervalued stocks in cyclical sectors.
Based on a bottom-up analysis, Metzler sector analysts recommend buying shares in 2018 in the following companies (among others): Hapag Lloyd, RWE, Salzgitter, HeidelbergCement and Munich Re - for these stocks they see the most share price upside. However, they recommend exercising caution particularly for shares in Alstria Office Reit and Aareal Bank.
This document has been prepared by B. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. KGaA (Metzler) and is addressed exclusively to suitable counterparties and professional clients. It is thus not suitable for retail clients.
This document is based on information which is generally available and which Metzler believes to be fundamentally reliable. Metzler has not verified the accuracy or completeness of the information, however, and thus provides no warranty or representation in respect of the accuracy or completeness of the information, opinions, estimates, recommendations and forecasts contained in this document. Neither Metzler nor any of its shareholders or employees are liable for damage or any other disadvantage suffered due to inaccurate or incomplete information, opinions, estimates, recommendations or forecasts as a result of the distribution or use of or in connection to this document.
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The information, opinions, estimates, recommendations and forecasts contained in this document reflect the personal views of the author at the time of publication on the financial instruments or issuers that form the subject of this document and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Metzler, the issuer or third parties. They may also be subject to change on account of future events and developments. Metzler has no obligation to amend, supplement or update this document or to otherwise notify recipients in the event that any information, opinions, estimates, recommendations or forecasts stated herein should change or subsequently become inaccurate, incomplete or misleading. The model calculations contained in this document, if any, are examples showing the possible performance and are based on various assumptions (e.g. regarding earnings and volatility). The actual performance may be higher or lower, depending on market trends and on the correctness of assumptions underlying the model calculations. Accordingly, actual performance cannot be guaranteed, warranted or assured.
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